Peterborough United vs Burton Albion Prediction: a narrow Peterborough United win

The prediction

Model backs Over 1.5 at 81% — combined xG 2.9.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today81%1.23
• Peterborough United or Burton AlbionDouble chance tips today76%1.32
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today67%1.49
• Peterborough United (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today63%1.59
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today11.3%8.85

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Peterborough United at 51 percent, with the draw at 24 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from Peterborough United and 1.3 from Burton Albion, a combined 2.9, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 81 percent, Peterborough United or Burton Albion at 76 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 67 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 11.3 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Peterborough United1.65

Burton Albion1.25

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.