Real Sociedad vs Fútbol Club Barcelona Prediction: a Fútbol Club Barcelona win

The prediction

Fútbol Club Barcelona favoured at 82% — model xG 0.7 vs 2.5.

Every market we call on this match

• Fútbol Club Barcelona or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Fútbol Club Barcelona (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today85%1.18
• Fútbol Club Barcelona to winMatch result tips today82%1.22
• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today81%1.23
• Correct score 0-2Correct score tips today13.4%7.46

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Fútbol Club Barcelona at 82 percent, with the draw at 13 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 0.7 goals from Real Sociedad and 2.5 from Fútbol Club Barcelona, a combined 3.1, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Fútbol Club Barcelona or draw at 85 percent, Fútbol Club Barcelona (draw no bet) at 85 percent and Fútbol Club Barcelona to win at 82 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 0-2, though at 13.4 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Real Sociedad0.65

Fútbol Club Barcelona2.50

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.