SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction: a narrow VfB Stuttgart win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 68% — combined xG 3.1.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today85%1.18
• VfB Stuttgart or drawDouble chance tips today80%1.25
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today68%1.47
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today67%1.49
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today62%1.61
• VfB Stuttgart to winMatch result tips today60%1.67
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.7%9.35

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has VfB Stuttgart at 60 percent, with the draw at 21 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.5 goals from SC Paderborn 07 and 1.6 from VfB Stuttgart, a combined 3.1, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 85 percent, VfB Stuttgart or draw at 80 percent and Over 2.5 goals at 68 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

SC Paderborn 071.48

VfB Stuttgart1.64

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.