Sevilla vs FC Barcelona Prediction: a narrow FC Barcelona win

The prediction

FC Barcelona favoured at 63% — model xG 1.1 vs 2.0.

Every market we call on this match

• FC Barcelona or drawDouble chance tips today83%1.20
• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today80%1.25
• FC Barcelona (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today79%1.27
• FC Barcelona to winMatch result tips today63%1.59
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.7%10.31

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has FC Barcelona at 63 percent, with the draw at 21 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.1 goals from Sevilla and 2.0 from FC Barcelona, a combined 3.1, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by FC Barcelona or draw at 83 percent, Over 1.5 goals at 80 percent and FC Barcelona (draw no bet) at 79 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Sevilla1.07

FC Barcelona2.04

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.