Solihull Moors vs Aldershot Town Prediction: a narrow Solihull Moors win

The prediction

Both teams to score priced 62% — both attacks priced to score (xG 1.6 / 1.6).

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today81%1.23
• Solihull Moors or Aldershot TownDouble chance tips today75%1.33
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today64%1.56
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today62%1.61
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today60%1.67
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.4%9.62

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result it splits close to evenly, 41 percent Solihull Moors, 25 percent the draw and 34 percent Aldershot Town. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from Solihull Moors and 1.6 from Aldershot Town, a combined 3.2, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Five markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 81 percent, Solihull Moors or Aldershot Town at 75 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 64 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.4 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Solihull Moors1.64

Aldershot Town1.57

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.