Southampton vs Bristol City Prediction: a narrow Southampton win

The prediction

Southampton favoured at 58% — model xG 1.7 vs 1.1.

Every market we call on this match

• Southampton or drawDouble chance tips today82%1.22
• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today81%1.23
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today70%1.43
• Southampton (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today69%1.45
• Southampton to winMatch result tips today58%1.72
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today11.5%8.70

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Southampton at 58 percent, with the draw at 23 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.7 goals from Southampton and 1.1 from Bristol City, a combined 2.8, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Five markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Southampton or draw at 82 percent, Over 1.5 goals at 81 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 70 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 11.5 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Southampton1.67

Bristol City1.09

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.