SV Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg Prediction: a narrow SV Werder Bremen win

The prediction

Both teams to score priced 64% — both attacks priced to score (xG 1.6 / 1.4).

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today81%1.23
• SV Werder Bremen or FC AugsburgDouble chance tips today75%1.33
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today70%1.43
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today64%1.56
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today62%1.61
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today11.2%8.93

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result it splits close to evenly, 40 percent SV Werder Bremen, 26 percent the draw and 35 percent FC Augsburg. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from SV Werder Bremen and 1.4 from FC Augsburg, a combined 3.0, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Five markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 81 percent, SV Werder Bremen or FC Augsburg at 75 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 70 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 11.2 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

SV Werder Bremen1.60

FC Augsburg1.37

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.