Tondela vs FC Alverca Prediction: a narrow FC Alverca win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 60% — combined xG 3.2.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today81%1.23
• Tondela or FC AlvercaDouble chance tips today76%1.32
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today61%1.64
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today60%1.67
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.6%9.43

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result it splits close to evenly, 38 percent Tondela, 24 percent the draw and 39 percent FC Alverca. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from Tondela and 1.6 from FC Alverca, a combined 3.2, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 81 percent, Tondela or FC Alverca at 76 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 61 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Tondela1.58

FC Alverca1.58

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.