1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction: a narrow 1. FSV Mainz 05 win

The prediction

Both teams to score priced 61% — both attacks priced to score (xG 1.9 / 1.4).

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today81%1.23
• 1. FSV Mainz 05 or Eintracht FrankfurtDouble chance tips today75%1.33
• 1. FSV Mainz 05 (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today68%1.47
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today63%1.59
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today61%1.64
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today60%1.67
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.7%10.31

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has 1. FSV Mainz 05 at 45 percent, with the draw at 25 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.9 goals from 1. FSV Mainz 05 and 1.4 from Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined 3.3, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 81 percent, 1. FSV Mainz 05 or Eintracht Frankfurt at 75 percent and 1. FSV Mainz 05 (draw no bet) at 68 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

1. FSV Mainz 051.95

Eintracht Frankfurt1.36

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.