AD Os Limianos vs SC Mineiro Aljustrelense Prediction: a narrow AD Os Limianos win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 67% — combined xG 3.6.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today85%1.18
• AD Os Limianos or SC Mineiro AljustrelenseDouble chance tips today80%1.25
• AD Os Limianos (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today73%1.37
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today67%1.49
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today62%1.61
• AD Os Limianos to winMatch result tips today59%1.69
• Correct score 2-1Correct score tips today9.4%10.64

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has AD Os Limianos at 59 percent, with the draw at 20 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 2.2 goals from AD Os Limianos and 1.4 from SC Mineiro Aljustrelense, a combined 3.6, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 85 percent, AD Os Limianos or SC Mineiro Aljustrelense at 80 percent and AD Os Limianos (draw no bet) at 73 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-1, though at 9.4 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

AD Os Limianos2.20

SC Mineiro Aljustrelense1.36

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.