AFC Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction: a AFC Ajax win

The prediction

AFC Ajax favoured at 73% — model xG 2.4 vs 1.3.

Every market we call on this match

• AFC Ajax or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today85%1.18
• AFC Ajax (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today78%1.28
• AFC Ajax to winMatch result tips today73%1.37
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today72%1.39
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today60%1.67
• Correct score 2-1Correct score tips today9.4%10.64

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has AFC Ajax at 73 percent, with the draw at 17 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.4 goals from AFC Ajax and 1.3 from NEC Nijmegen, a combined 3.6, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by AFC Ajax or draw at 85 percent, Over 1.5 goals at 85 percent and AFC Ajax (draw no bet) at 78 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-1, though at 9.4 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

AFC Ajax2.35

NEC Nijmegen1.29

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.