AFC Fylde vs Atherton Collieries AFC Prediction: a narrow Atherton Collieries AFC win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 67% — combined xG 3.5.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today85%1.18
• AFC Fylde or Atherton Collieries AFCDouble chance tips today79%1.27
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today67%1.49
• Atherton Collieries AFC (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today66%1.52
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today63%1.59
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today8.9%11.24

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Atherton Collieries AFC at 52 percent, with the draw at 21 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.5 goals from AFC Fylde and 2.0 from Atherton Collieries AFC, a combined 3.5, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Five markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 85 percent, AFC Fylde or Atherton Collieries AFC at 79 percent and Over 2.5 goals at 67 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 8.9 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

AFC Fylde1.49

Atherton Collieries AFC2.04

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.