Argentina vs Bolivia Prediction: a comfortable Argentina win

The prediction

Argentina favoured at 92% — model xG 3.0 vs 0.4.

Every market we call on this match

• Argentina to winMatch result tips today85%1.18
• Argentina or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Argentina (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today85%1.18
• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today84%1.19
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today65%1.54
• Correct score 3-0Correct score tips today15.3%6.54

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Argentina at 92 percent, with the draw at 6 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 3.0 goals from Argentina and 0.4 from Bolivia, a combined 3.4, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Five markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Argentina to win at 85 percent, Argentina or draw at 85 percent and Argentina (draw no bet) at 85 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 3-0, though at 15.3 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Argentina3.04

Bolivia0.38

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.