Barrow AFC vs Gloucester City Prediction: a narrow Gloucester City win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 61% — combined xG 3.2.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today81%1.23
• Gloucester City or drawDouble chance tips today80%1.25
• Gloucester City (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today74%1.35
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today61%1.64
• Gloucester City to winMatch result tips today59%1.69
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.7%10.31

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Gloucester City at 59 percent, with the draw at 21 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.2 goals from Barrow AFC and 2.0 from Gloucester City, a combined 3.2, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Five markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 81 percent, Gloucester City or draw at 80 percent and Gloucester City (draw no bet) at 74 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Barrow AFC1.19

Gloucester City2.01

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.