Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig Prediction: a narrow Bayer 04 Leverkusen win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 64% — combined xG 3.3.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today83%1.20
• Bayer 04 Leverkusen or RB LeipzigDouble chance tips today78%1.28
• Bayer 04 Leverkusen (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today67%1.49
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today65%1.54
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today64%1.56
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today61%1.64
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.6%10.42

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 52 percent, with the draw at 22 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 2.0 goals from Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 1.4 from RB Leipzig, a combined 3.3, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 83 percent, Bayer 04 Leverkusen or RB Leipzig at 78 percent and Bayer 04 Leverkusen (draw no bet) at 67 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Bayer 04 Leverkusen1.96

RB Leipzig1.39

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.