Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction: a narrow Borussia Dortmund win

The prediction

Borussia Dortmund favoured at 75% — model xG 2.0 vs 1.1.

Every market we call on this match

• Borussia Dortmund or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today85%1.18
• Borussia Dortmund (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today78%1.28
• Borussia Dortmund to winMatch result tips today75%1.33
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today70%1.43
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today65%1.54
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.9%10.10

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Borussia Dortmund at 75 percent, with the draw at 15 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.0 goals from Borussia Dortmund and 1.1 from SC Paderborn 07, a combined 3.1, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Borussia Dortmund or draw at 85 percent, Over 1.5 goals at 85 percent and Borussia Dortmund (draw no bet) at 78 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.9 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Borussia Dortmund2.00

SC Paderborn 071.06

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.