C.F. Os Belenenses vs FC Arouca Prediction: a narrow C.F. Os Belenenses win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 65% — combined xG 3.4.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today84%1.19
• C.F. Os Belenenses or drawDouble chance tips today81%1.23
• C.F. Os Belenenses (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today76%1.32
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today65%1.54
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today62%1.61
• C.F. Os Belenenses to winMatch result tips today61%1.64
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today60%1.67
• Correct score 2-1Correct score tips today9.6%10.42

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has C.F. Os Belenenses at 61 percent, with the draw at 20 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.2 goals from C.F. Os Belenenses and 1.3 from FC Arouca, a combined 3.4, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Seven markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 84 percent, C.F. Os Belenenses or draw at 81 percent and C.F. Os Belenenses (draw no bet) at 76 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-1, though at 9.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

C.F. Os Belenenses2.17

FC Arouca1.25

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.