Carlisle United vs Tamworth Prediction: a narrow Carlisle United win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 71% — combined xG 3.8.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today85%1.18
• Carlisle United or TamworthDouble chance tips today81%1.23
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today71%1.41
• Carlisle United (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today70%1.43
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today67%1.49
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today65%1.54
• Carlisle United to winMatch result tips today57%1.75
• Correct score 2-1Correct score tips today8.9%11.24

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Carlisle United at 57 percent, with the draw at 20 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 2.3 goals from Carlisle United and 1.5 from Tamworth, a combined 3.8, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Seven markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 85 percent, Carlisle United or Tamworth at 81 percent and Over 2.5 goals at 71 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-1, though at 8.9 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Carlisle United2.26

Tamworth1.51

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.