CD Fátima vs FC Vinhais Prediction: a CD Fátima win

The prediction

CD Fátima favoured at 73% — model xG 2.4 vs 0.9.

Every market we call on this match

• CD Fátima or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• CD Fátima (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today85%1.18
• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today83%1.20
• CD Fátima to winMatch result tips today73%1.37
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today66%1.52
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today63%1.59
• Correct score 2-0Correct score tips today10.3%9.71

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has CD Fátima at 73 percent, with the draw at 16 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.4 goals from CD Fátima and 0.9 from FC Vinhais, a combined 3.3, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by CD Fátima or draw at 85 percent, CD Fátima (draw no bet) at 85 percent and Over 1.5 goals at 83 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-0, though at 10.3 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

CD Fátima2.40

FC Vinhais0.93

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.