Chelsea vs Hull City Prediction: a narrow Chelsea win

The prediction

Chelsea favoured at 75% — model xG 2.0 vs 1.1.

Every market we call on this match

• Chelsea or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today84%1.19
• Chelsea (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today76%1.32
• Chelsea to winMatch result tips today75%1.33
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today65%1.54
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today61%1.64
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.0%10.00

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Chelsea at 75 percent, with the draw at 16 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.0 goals from Chelsea and 1.1 from Hull City, a combined 3.1, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Chelsea or draw at 85 percent, Over 1.5 goals at 84 percent and Chelsea (draw no bet) at 76 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.0 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Chelsea1.97

Hull City1.11

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.