FC Augsburg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction: a narrow Bayer 04 Leverkusen win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 65% — combined xG 3.1.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today84%1.19
• Bayer 04 Leverkusen or drawDouble chance tips today77%1.30
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today66%1.52
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today65%1.54
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today64%1.56
• Bayer 04 Leverkusen (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today63%1.59
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.6%9.43

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 55 percent, with the draw at 23 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.4 goals from FC Augsburg and 1.8 from Bayer 04 Leverkusen, a combined 3.1, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 84 percent, Bayer 04 Leverkusen or draw at 77 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 66 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

FC Augsburg1.35

Bayer 04 Leverkusen1.75

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.