FC Twente vs ADO Den Haag Prediction: a FC Twente win

The prediction

FC Twente favoured at 77% — model xG 2.7 vs 0.9.

Every market we call on this match

• FC Twente or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• FC Twente (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today85%1.18
• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today85%1.18
• FC Twente to winMatch result tips today77%1.30
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today70%1.43
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today65%1.54
• Correct score 2-0Correct score tips today10.0%10.00

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has FC Twente at 77 percent, with the draw at 15 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.7 goals from FC Twente and 0.9 from ADO Den Haag, a combined 3.6, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by FC Twente or draw at 85 percent, FC Twente (draw no bet) at 85 percent and Over 1.5 goals at 85 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-0, though at 10.0 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

FC Twente2.68

ADO Den Haag0.90

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.