Gateshead vs Stafford Rangers FC Prediction: a Stafford Rangers FC win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 66% — combined xG 3.5.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today85%1.18
• Stafford Rangers FC or drawDouble chance tips today83%1.20
• Stafford Rangers FC (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today79%1.27
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today66%1.52
• Stafford Rangers FC to winMatch result tips today65%1.54
• Correct score 1-2Correct score tips today9.6%10.42

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Stafford Rangers FC at 65 percent, with the draw at 18 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.2 goals from Gateshead and 2.3 from Stafford Rangers FC, a combined 3.5, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Five markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 85 percent, Stafford Rangers FC or draw at 83 percent and Stafford Rangers FC (draw no bet) at 79 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-2, though at 9.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Gateshead1.21

Stafford Rangers FC2.30

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.