GD Alcochetense vs CS Marítimo Prediction: a narrow GD Alcochetense win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 64% — combined xG 3.4.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today84%1.19
• GD Alcochetense or CS MarítimoDouble chance tips today78%1.28
• GD Alcochetense (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today64%1.56
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today64%1.56
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today62%1.61
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today60%1.67
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.4%10.64

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has GD Alcochetense at 50 percent, with the draw at 22 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.9 goals from GD Alcochetense and 1.4 from CS Marítimo, a combined 3.4, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 84 percent, GD Alcochetense or CS Marítimo at 78 percent and GD Alcochetense (draw no bet) at 64 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.4 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

GD Alcochetense1.95

CS Marítimo1.45

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.