Inter vs Parma Prediction: a Inter win

The prediction

Inter favoured at 84% — model xG 2.1 vs 0.7.

Every market we call on this match

• Inter or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Inter (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today85%1.18
• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today85%1.18
• Inter to winMatch result tips today84%1.19
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today71%1.41
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today65%1.54
• Correct score 2-0Correct score tips today13.5%7.41

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Inter at 84 percent, with the draw at 11 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.1 goals from Inter and 0.7 from Parma, a combined 2.8, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Inter or draw at 85 percent, Inter (draw no bet) at 85 percent and Over 1.5 goals at 85 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-0, though at 13.5 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Inter2.15

Parma0.69

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.