Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction: a Inter win

The prediction

Inter favoured at 66% — model xG 2.3 vs 1.2.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today85%1.18
• Inter or drawDouble chance tips today84%1.19
• Inter (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today81%1.23
• Inter to winMatch result tips today66%1.52
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today66%1.52
• Correct score 2-1Correct score tips today9.6%10.42

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Inter at 66 percent, with the draw at 18 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.3 goals from Inter and 1.2 from Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined 3.5, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Five markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 85 percent, Inter or draw at 84 percent and Inter (draw no bet) at 81 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-1, though at 9.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Inter2.32

Shakhtar Donetsk1.16

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.