Lillestrøm SK vs Vålerenga IF Prediction: a narrow Lillestrøm SK win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 62% — combined xG 3.3.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today82%1.22
• Lillestrøm SK or Vålerenga IFDouble chance tips today77%1.30
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today74%1.35
• Lillestrøm SK (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today63%1.59
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today62%1.61
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today61%1.64
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.0%10.00

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Lillestrøm SK at 49 percent, with the draw at 23 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.9 goals from Lillestrøm SK and 1.4 from Vålerenga IF, a combined 3.3, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 82 percent, Lillestrøm SK or Vålerenga IF at 77 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 74 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.0 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Lillestrøm SK1.86

Vålerenga IF1.41

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.