Liverpool FC vs Fulham Prediction: a narrow Liverpool FC win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 65% — combined xG 2.9.

Every market we call on this match

• Liverpool FC or drawDouble chance tips today84%1.19
• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today82%1.22
• Liverpool FC (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today75%1.33
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today65%1.54
• Liverpool FC to winMatch result tips today64%1.56
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today64%1.56
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.7%9.35

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Liverpool FC at 64 percent, with the draw at 20 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.9 goals from Liverpool FC and 1.0 from Fulham, a combined 2.9, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Liverpool FC or draw at 84 percent, Over 1.5 goals at 82 percent and Liverpool FC (draw no bet) at 75 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Liverpool FC1.85

Fulham1.04

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.