Lusitânia Lourosa vs AD Os Limianos Prediction: a narrow AD Os Limianos win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 68% — combined xG 3.6.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today85%1.18
• Lusitânia Lourosa or AD Os LimianosDouble chance tips today79%1.27
• AD Os Limianos (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today68%1.47
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today68%1.47
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today64%1.56
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today63%1.59
• Correct score 1-2Correct score tips today9.0%11.11

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has AD Os Limianos at 54 percent, with the draw at 21 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.5 goals from Lusitânia Lourosa and 2.1 from AD Os Limianos, a combined 3.6, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 85 percent, Lusitânia Lourosa or AD Os Limianos at 79 percent and AD Os Limianos (draw no bet) at 68 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-2, though at 9.0 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Lusitânia Lourosa1.50

AD Os Limianos2.11

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.