Milton Keynes Dons vs Peterborough United Prediction: a narrow Milton Keynes Dons win

The prediction

Both teams to score priced 62% — both attacks priced to score (xG 2.0 / 1.2).

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today83%1.20
• Milton Keynes Dons or drawDouble chance tips today75%1.33
• Milton Keynes Dons (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today72%1.39
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today64%1.56
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today62%1.61
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today61%1.64
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.8%10.20

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Milton Keynes Dons at 50 percent, with the draw at 25 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 2.0 goals from Milton Keynes Dons and 1.2 from Peterborough United, a combined 3.2, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 83 percent, Milton Keynes Dons or draw at 75 percent and Milton Keynes Dons (draw no bet) at 72 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.8 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Milton Keynes Dons1.98

Peterborough United1.24

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.