NEC Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles Prediction: a narrow NEC Nijmegen win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 65% — combined xG 3.4.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today84%1.19
• NEC Nijmegen or Go Ahead EaglesDouble chance tips today79%1.27
• NEC Nijmegen (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today68%1.47
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today65%1.54
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today64%1.56
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today62%1.61
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.3%10.75

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has NEC Nijmegen at 54 percent, with the draw at 21 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 2.0 goals from NEC Nijmegen and 1.4 from Go Ahead Eagles, a combined 3.4, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 84 percent, NEC Nijmegen or Go Ahead Eagles at 79 percent and NEC Nijmegen (draw no bet) at 68 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.3 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

NEC Nijmegen2.02

Go Ahead Eagles1.40

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.