Oliveira Hospital vs Juventude SC Prediction: a narrow Juventude SC win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 66% — combined xG 3.5.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today85%1.18
• Oliveira Hospital or Juventude SCDouble chance tips today78%1.28
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today66%1.52
• Juventude SC (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today63%1.59
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today63%1.59
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.1%10.99

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Juventude SC at 49 percent, with the draw at 22 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.5 goals from Oliveira Hospital and 2.0 from Juventude SC, a combined 3.5, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Five markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 85 percent, Oliveira Hospital or Juventude SC at 78 percent and Over 2.5 goals at 66 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.1 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Oliveira Hospital1.54

Juventude SC1.96

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.