Olympique de Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain Prediction: a narrow Paris Saint-Germain win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 61% — combined xG 3.2.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today81%1.23
• Olympique de Marseille or Paris Saint-GermainDouble chance tips today77%1.30
• Paris Saint-Germain (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today63%1.59
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today61%1.64
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.3%9.71

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Paris Saint-Germain at 49 percent, with the draw at 23 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.4 goals from Olympique de Marseille and 1.8 from Paris Saint-Germain, a combined 3.2, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 81 percent, Olympique de Marseille or Paris Saint-Germain at 77 percent and Paris Saint-Germain (draw no bet) at 63 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.3 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Olympique de Marseille1.40

Paris Saint-Germain1.80

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.