Örgryte IS vs IK Sirius Prediction: a narrow IK Sirius win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 64% — combined xG 3.4.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today83%1.20
• Örgryte IS or IK SiriusDouble chance tips today80%1.25
• IK Sirius (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today74%1.35
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today68%1.47
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today64%1.56
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today60%1.67
• IK Sirius to winMatch result tips today59%1.69
• Correct score 1-2Correct score tips today9.6%10.42

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has IK Sirius at 59 percent, with the draw at 20 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.3 goals from Örgryte IS and 2.1 from IK Sirius, a combined 3.4, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Seven markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 83 percent, Örgryte IS or IK Sirius at 80 percent and IK Sirius (draw no bet) at 74 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-2, though at 9.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Örgryte IS1.27

IK Sirius2.10

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.