Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte FC Prediction: a narrow Philadelphia Union win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 62% — combined xG 3.3.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today82%1.22
• Philadelphia Union or drawDouble chance tips today79%1.27
• Philadelphia Union (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today73%1.37
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today69%1.45
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today62%1.61
• Philadelphia Union to winMatch result tips today58%1.72
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.6%10.42

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Philadelphia Union at 58 percent, with the draw at 21 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 2.0 goals from Philadelphia Union and 1.2 from Charlotte FC, a combined 3.3, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 82 percent, Philadelphia Union or draw at 79 percent and Philadelphia Union (draw no bet) at 73 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Philadelphia Union2.03

Charlotte FC1.23

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.