SK Rapid Wien vs WSG Tirol Prediction: a SK Rapid Wien win

The prediction

SK Rapid Wien favoured at 66% — model xG 2.5 vs 1.3.

Every market we call on this match

• SK Rapid Wien or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today83%1.20
• SK Rapid Wien (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today80%1.25
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today69%1.45
• SK Rapid Wien to winMatch result tips today66%1.52
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today64%1.56
• Correct score 2-1Correct score tips today9.2%10.87

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has SK Rapid Wien at 66 percent, with the draw at 20 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.5 goals from SK Rapid Wien and 1.3 from WSG Tirol, a combined 3.7, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by SK Rapid Wien or draw at 85 percent, Over 1.5 goals at 83 percent and SK Rapid Wien (draw no bet) at 80 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-1, though at 9.2 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

SK Rapid Wien2.46

WSG Tirol1.26

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.