Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC Prediction: a narrow Orlando City SC win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 67% — combined xG 3.2.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today85%1.18
• Orlando City SC or Toronto FCDouble chance tips today77%1.30
• Orlando City SC (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today73%1.37
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today67%1.49
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today66%1.52
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today65%1.54
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.7%10.31

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Orlando City SC at 53 percent, with the draw at 23 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 2.0 goals from Orlando City SC and 1.2 from Toronto FC, a combined 3.2, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 85 percent, Orlando City SC or Toronto FC at 77 percent and Orlando City SC (draw no bet) at 73 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Orlando City SC2.02

Toronto FC1.22

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.