Trinidad and Tobago vs Curaçao Prediction: a narrow Curaçao win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 71% — combined xG 3.8.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today85%1.18
• Trinidad and Tobago or CuraçaoDouble chance tips today81%1.23
• Curaçao (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today73%1.37
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today71%1.41
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today65%1.54
• Curaçao to winMatch result tips today59%1.69
• Correct score 1-2Correct score tips today8.9%11.24

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Curaçao at 59 percent, with the draw at 19 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.5 goals from Trinidad and Tobago and 2.3 from Curaçao, a combined 3.8, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 85 percent, Trinidad and Tobago or Curaçao at 81 percent and Curaçao (draw no bet) at 73 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-2, though at 8.9 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Trinidad and Tobago1.48

Curaçao2.32

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.