TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV Prediction: a narrow TSG Hoffenheim win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 68% — combined xG 3.4.

Every market we call on this match

• TSG Hoffenheim or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today84%1.19
• TSG Hoffenheim (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today77%1.30
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today70%1.43
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today68%1.47
• TSG Hoffenheim to winMatch result tips today66%1.52
• Correct score 2-1Correct score tips today9.7%10.31

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has TSG Hoffenheim at 66 percent, with the draw at 20 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.2 goals from TSG Hoffenheim and 1.2 from Hamburger SV, a combined 3.4, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by TSG Hoffenheim or draw at 85 percent, Over 1.5 goals at 84 percent and TSG Hoffenheim (draw no bet) at 77 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-1, though at 9.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

TSG Hoffenheim2.18

Hamburger SV1.19

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.