VfL Osnabrück vs Hertha BSC Prediction: a narrow Hertha BSC win

The prediction

Both teams to score priced 63% — both attacks priced to score (xG 1.6 / 2.3).

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today81%1.23
• VfL Osnabrück or Hertha BSCDouble chance tips today74%1.35
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today68%1.47
• Hertha BSC (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today67%1.49
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today63%1.59
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today61%1.64
• Correct score 1-2Correct score tips today8.5%11.76

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Hertha BSC at 44 percent, with the draw at 26 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from VfL Osnabrück and 2.3 from Hertha BSC, a combined 3.9, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 81 percent, VfL Osnabrück or Hertha BSC at 74 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 68 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-2, though at 8.5 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

VfL Osnabrück1.64

Hertha BSC2.27

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.