Vitória de Setúbal vs União Desportiva da Serra Prediction: a União Desportiva da Serra win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 72% — combined xG 3.9.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today85%1.18
• Vitória de Setúbal or União Desportiva da SerraDouble chance tips today83%1.20
• União Desportiva da Serra (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today78%1.28
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today72%1.39
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today67%1.49
• União Desportiva da Serra to winMatch result tips today65%1.54
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today64%1.56
• Correct score 1-2Correct score tips today9.0%11.11

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has União Desportiva da Serra at 65 percent, with the draw at 17 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.4 goals from Vitória de Setúbal and 2.5 from União Desportiva da Serra, a combined 3.9, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Seven markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 85 percent, Vitória de Setúbal or União Desportiva da Serra at 83 percent and União Desportiva da Serra (draw no bet) at 78 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-2, though at 9.0 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Vitória de Setúbal1.38

União Desportiva da Serra2.47

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.