Europa League
AC Milan vs Ferencváros TC Prediction: a narrow AC Milan win
Our model makes AC Milan vs Ferencváros TC a narrow AC Milan win and moderate confidence at 70%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
AC Milan favoured at 70%, with model xG of 1.6 vs 1.3.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- AC Milan or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today81%1.23
- AC Milan to winMatch result tips today70%1.43
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today62%1.61
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today11.5%8.70
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 59Tips44 Power75
- 57Tips44 Form77
- 80Tips44 Attack84
- 40Tips44 Defence64
- 70Tips44 Goals70
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Players to watch
- Samuel Chukwueze (AC Milan)
What the last 10 matches say
- Ferencváros TC to score100% recent
Ferencváros TC scored in 10 of their last 10 (21 goals).
- AC Milan to score80% recent
AC Milan scored in 8 of their last 10 (20 goals).
- Over 2.5 goals70% recent · model 62%
7 of AC Milan's last 10 and 7 of Ferencváros TC's last 10 went over 2.5 goals (averages 3.5 and 3 a game).
More over 2.5 goals picks today
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has AC Milan at 70 percent, with the draw at 18 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from AC Milan and 1.3 from Ferencváros TC, a combined 2.9, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by AC Milan or draw at 85 percent, Over 1.5 goals at 81 percent and AC Milan to win at 70 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 11.5 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
AC Milan1.59
Ferencváros TC1.30Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
AC Milan vs Ferencváros TC: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in AC Milan vs Ferencváros TC?
AC Milan. Our model gives them a 70% chance of winning, against 12% for Ferencváros TC and 18% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 51%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 62%, with expected goals of 1.6 for AC Milan and 1.3 for Ferencváros TC.
When is AC Milan vs Ferencváros TC?
Thursday 5 November, 20:45 EAT (17:45 UTC). It is a Europa League match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.