Europa League
AC Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth Prediction: a narrow Bournemouth win
Our model makes AC Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth a narrow Bournemouth win and low confidence at 59%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Bournemouth favoured at 59%, with model xG of 1.6 vs 1.3.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Bournemouth or drawDouble chance tips today82%1.22
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today81%1.23
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today65%1.54
- Bournemouth to winMatch result tips today59%1.69
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today11.3%8.85
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 74Tips44 Power74
- 67Tips44 Form73
- 92Tips44 Attack84
- 64Tips44 Defence64
- 50Tips44 Goals70
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Bournemouth to score90% recent
Bournemouth scored in 9 of their last 10 (21 goals).
- Over 1.5 goals85% recent · model 81%
8 of AC Sparta Praha's last 10 and 9 of Bournemouth's last 10 had at least two goals.
More over 1.5 goals picks today - AC Sparta Praha to score80% recent
AC Sparta Praha scored in 8 of their last 10 (23 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Bournemouth at 59 percent, with the draw at 23 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from AC Sparta Praha and 1.3 from Bournemouth, a combined 2.9, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Bournemouth or draw at 82 percent, Over 1.5 goals at 81 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 65 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 11.3 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
AC Sparta Praha1.62
Bournemouth1.32Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
AC Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in AC Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth?
Bournemouth. Our model gives them a 59% chance of winning, against 18% for AC Sparta Praha and 23% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 56%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 59%, with expected goals of 1.6 for AC Sparta Praha and 1.3 for Bournemouth.
When is AC Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth?
Thursday 5 November, 20:45 EAT (17:45 UTC). It is a Europa League match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.