Taça de Portugal
Académica Coimbra vs Amarante Prediction: a narrow Académica Coimbra win
Our model makes Académica Coimbra vs Amarante a narrow Académica Coimbra win and low confidence at 46%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
Our pre-match call, Académica Coimbra to win, won.
This fixture has been played. The call above was published before kickoff, and our settled picks, wins and losses, are on the public record.
The prediction
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 257 wins and 123 losses from 380 settled picks, a 67.6% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Académica Coimbra or drawDouble chance tips today74%1.35
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.1%9.90
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Académica Coimbra at 46 percent, with the draw at 27 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.8 goals from Académica Coimbra and 1.5 from Amarante FC, a combined 3.3, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. One market clears our bar on this fixture: Académica Coimbra or draw at 74 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.1 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Académica Coimbra vs Amarante: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Académica Coimbra vs Amarante?
Académica Coimbra. Our model gives them a 46% chance of winning, against 27% for Amarante and 27% for the draw.
Did our model expect both teams to score?
Our model put both teams to score at 55%.
Did our model expect over 2.5 goals?
Our model put over 2.5 goals at 51%, with expected goals of 1.8 for Académica Coimbra and 1.5 for Amarante.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.