Eredivisie
ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction: a narrow Sparta Rotterdam win
Our model makes ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam a narrow Sparta Rotterdam win and low confidence at 39%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Model backs Over 2.5 at 62% — combined xG 3.3.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today82%1.22
- ADO Den Haag or Sparta RotterdamDouble chance tips today76%1.32
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today64%1.56
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today62%1.61
- Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today61%1.64
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.2%9.80
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 27Tips44 Power34
- 20Tips44 Form30
- 52Tips44 Attack68
- 8Tips44 Defence4
- 70Tips44 Goals90
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Both teams to score80% recent · model 61%
Both teams scored in 8 of ADO Den Haag's last 10 and 8 of Sparta Rotterdam's last 10.
More both teams to score picks today - Over 2.5 goals80% recent · model 62%
7 of ADO Den Haag's last 10 and 9 of Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 went over 2.5 goals (averages 3.6 and 4.1 a game).
More over 2.5 goals picks today - ADO Den Haag to score80% recent
ADO Den Haag scored in 8 of their last 10 (13 goals).
- Sparta Rotterdam to score80% recent
Sparta Rotterdam scored in 8 of their last 10 (17 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result it splits close to evenly, 37 percent ADO Den Haag, 24 percent the draw and 39 percent Sparta Rotterdam. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from ADO Den Haag and 1.6 from Sparta Rotterdam, a combined 3.3, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Five markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 82 percent, ADO Den Haag or Sparta Rotterdam at 76 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 64 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.2 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
ADO Den Haag1.61
Sparta Rotterdam1.65Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam. Our model gives them a 39% chance of winning, against 37% for ADO Den Haag and 24% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 61%. Both teams scored in 8 of ADO Den Haag's last 10 and 8 of Sparta Rotterdam's last 10.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 62%, with expected goals of 1.6 for ADO Den Haag and 1.6 for Sparta Rotterdam.
When is ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Saturday 7 November, 20:45 EAT (17:45 UTC). It is a Eredivisie match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.