National League
Altrincham vs Carlisle United Prediction: a narrow Altrincham win
Our model makes Altrincham vs Carlisle United a narrow Altrincham win and low confidence at 40%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Model backs Over 1.5 at 80% — combined xG 3.1.
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 295 wins and 141 losses from 436 settled picks, a 67.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today80%1.25
- Altrincham FC or Carlisle UnitedDouble chance tips today75%1.33
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today63%1.59
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.9%9.17
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 67Tips44 Power51
- 73Tips44 Form50
- 84Tips44 Attack60
- 44Tips44 Defence44
- 80Tips44 Goals60
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Altrincham to score90% recent
Altrincham scored in 9 of their last 10 (21 goals).
- Carlisle United to score80% recent
Carlisle United scored in 8 of their last 10 (15 goals).
- Both teams to score70% recent · model 59%
Both teams scored in 7 of Altrincham's last 10 and 7 of Carlisle United's last 10.
More both teams to score picks today - Over 2.5 goals70% recent · model 58%
8 of Altrincham's last 10 and 6 of Carlisle United's last 10 went over 2.5 goals (averages 3.5 and 2.9 a game).
More over 2.5 goals picks today
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result it splits close to evenly, 40 percent Altrincham FC, 25 percent the draw and 35 percent Carlisle United. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from Altrincham FC and 1.5 from Carlisle United, a combined 3.1, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Over 1.5 goals at 80 percent, Altrincham FC or Carlisle United at 75 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 63 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.9 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Altrincham vs Carlisle United: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Altrincham vs Carlisle United?
Altrincham. Our model gives them a 40% chance of winning, against 35% for Carlisle United and 25% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 59%. Both teams scored in 7 of Altrincham's last 10 and 7 of Carlisle United's last 10.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 58%, with expected goals of 1.6 for Altrincham and 1.5 for Carlisle United.
When is Altrincham vs Carlisle United?
Saturday 31 October, 18:00 EAT (15:00 UTC). It is a National League match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.