Champions League
Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich Prediction: a narrow Bayern Munich win
Our model makes Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich a narrow Bayern Munich win and low confidence at 47%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Both teams to score priced 68% — both attacks priced to score (xG 1.6 / 2.1).
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today85%1.18
- Atlético Madrid or FC Bayern MünchenDouble chance tips today77%1.30
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today68%1.47
- Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today68%1.47
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today63%1.59
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today8.3%12.05
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 80Tips44 Power74
- 83Tips44 Form73
- 76Tips44 Attack100
- 80Tips44 Defence48
- 50Tips44 Goals100
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Players to watch
- Ademola Lookman (Atlético Madrid)
- Harry Kane (Bayern Munich)
- Jamal Musiala (Bayern Munich)
What the last 10 matches say
- Atlético Madrid to score100% recent
Atlético Madrid scored in 10 of their last 10 (19 goals).
- Bayern Munich to score100% recent
Bayern Munich scored in 10 of their last 10 (38 goals).
- Over 2.5 goals75% recent · model 68%
5 of Atlético Madrid's last 10 and 10 of Bayern Munich's last 10 went over 2.5 goals (averages 2.4 and 5.1 a game).
More over 2.5 goals picks today
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has FC Bayern München at 47 percent, with the draw at 24 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from Atlético Madrid and 2.1 from FC Bayern München, a combined 3.7, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Five markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 85 percent, Atlético Madrid or FC Bayern München at 77 percent and Over 2.5 goals at 68 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 8.3 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Atlético Madrid1.65
FC Bayern München2.06Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich?
Bayern Munich. Our model gives them a 47% chance of winning, against 29% for Atlético Madrid and 24% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 68%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 68%, with expected goals of 1.6 for Atlético Madrid and 2.1 for Bayern Munich.
When is Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich?
Tuesday 3 November, 23:00 EAT (20:00 UTC). It is a Champions League match.
Where can I watch Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich?
Our guide "How to watch the Champions League in Kenya" lists the channels and streaming services that carry it, country by country. Open the guide.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.