Copa do Brasil
Grêmio vs Atlético Mineiro Prediction: a narrow Grêmio win
Our model makes Grêmio vs Atlético Mineiro a narrow Grêmio win and low confidence at 37%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 295 wins and 141 losses from 436 settled picks, a 67.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today62%1.61
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today13.2%7.58
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 47Tips44 Power65
- 40Tips44 Form67
- 56Tips44 Attack76
- 44Tips44 Defence52
- 50Tips44 Goals60
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Atlético Mineiro to score90% recent
Atlético Mineiro scored in 9 of their last 10 (19 goals).
- Grêmio to score80% recent
Grêmio scored in 8 of their last 10 (14 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result it splits close to evenly, 37 percent Grêmio, 31 percent the draw and 33 percent Atlético Mineiro. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.2 goals from Grêmio and 1.1 from Atlético Mineiro, a combined 2.3, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. One market clears our bar on this fixture: Over 8.5 corners at 62 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 13.2 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Grêmio vs Atlético Mineiro: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Grêmio vs Atlético Mineiro?
Grêmio. Our model gives them a 37% chance of winning, against 33% for Atlético Mineiro and 31% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 48%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 42%, with expected goals of 1.2 for Grêmio and 1.1 for Atlético Mineiro.
When is Grêmio vs Atlético Mineiro?
Monday 2 November, 00:30 EAT (21:30 UTC). It is a Copa do Brasil match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.