Ligue 1
Auxerre vs Paris Prediction: a narrow Paris win
Our model makes Auxerre vs Paris a narrow Paris win and low confidence at 38%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Auxerre or Paris FCDouble chance tips today74%1.35
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today62%1.61
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today11.7%8.55
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 46Tips44 Power48
- 53Tips44 Form47
- 68Tips44 Attack60
- 16Tips44 Defence36
- 70Tips44 Goals70
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Auxerre to score100% recent
Auxerre scored in 10 of their last 10 (17 goals).
- Over 2.5 goals70% recent · model 53%
7 of Auxerre's last 10 and 7 of Paris's last 10 went over 2.5 goals (averages 3.8 and 3.1 a game).
More over 2.5 goals picks today
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result it splits close to evenly, 35 percent Auxerre, 27 percent the draw and 38 percent Paris FC. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.4 goals from Auxerre and 1.4 from Paris FC, a combined 2.8, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Auxerre or Paris FC at 74 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 62 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 11.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Auxerre1.40
Paris FC1.45Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Auxerre vs Paris: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Auxerre vs Paris?
Paris. Our model gives them a 38% chance of winning, against 35% for Auxerre and 27% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 56%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 53%, with expected goals of 1.4 for Auxerre and 1.4 for Paris.
When is Auxerre vs Paris?
Saturday 7 November, 19:15 EAT (16:15 UTC). It is a Ligue 1 match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.