Brasileirão Serie A
Bahia vs São Paulo Prediction: a narrow Bahia win
Our model makes Bahia vs São Paulo a narrow Bahia win, with a most likely score of 1-1 and low confidence at 49%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 265 wins and 135 losses from 400 settled picks, a 66.3% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Bahia or drawDouble chance tips today77%1.30
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today72%1.39
- Bahia (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today67%1.49
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today12.3%8.13
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Bahia at 49 percent, with the draw at 28 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.5 goals from Bahia and 1.0 from São Paulo, a combined 2.5, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Bahia or draw at 77 percent, Over 8.5 corners at 72 percent and Bahia (draw no bet) at 67 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 12.3 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.